By Paul Lane/lanep@gnnewspaper.com
Greater Niagara Newspapers
Fri, May 16 2008
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If you spent your Sunday night (or Friday morning) tearing up your NCAA Tournament bracket sheet, don’t feel too bad.
More than an estimated 40 million Americans were expected to fill out brackets last week. Each person could have filled out 10,000 different brackets and still had slim odds of perfection, as there are more than 9.2 quintillion (nine followed by 18 zeros) possible brackets, according to R.J. Bell of pregame.com.
Even then, who would’ve picked Davidson over Georgetown (beside a family member who picked Davidson because David is her father’s name, and her boyfriend would be “David’s son” if they get married)?
I know I took pride (too much pride, really) in going 24-8 in my first round picks (nine of my Sweet 16 picks were correct). Nailing an upset such as Kansas State over USC makes you feel smart, even if you had more of a say in the sky being blue than in the outcome of that game.
Half the fun of filling out a bracket is the illogical nature of it. I picked on Tonawanda News City Editor Amy Wallace for taking American over Tennessee in the first round, only to have the taste of those words lingering on my tongue as American held a second-half lead in that game.
That’s the fun — literally anyone can win. People like me don’t know a darn thing.
It doesn’t matter if you’re picking your alma mater, the team that wears your favorite color or American (because nobody from the U.S. of A. could root against Americans). We all entered last weekend with a shot to be the smartest.
In fact, those people who are not ardent hoops fans probably stand more of a shot at achieving success because they don’t overthink things. Ultimately, though, it’s luck that will carry you to the top (like the year I won the office pool, which was the same year Syracuse won its national title; I always picked my alma mater to win, and that year I happened to be right).
Things tend to lean back toward the favorites as the tournament progresses, but few things are better for a sports fan than seeing that Cinderella squad come through. With the frenzied pace of the first weekend now over, the attention turns to those low seeds that advanced and the hope — however fleeting — that they may make the Final Four.
So whether you’re the ace of your office pool or stuck in bracket oblivion, take at least a moment to enjoy the tournament for what it is — the chance for everyone (whether player or picker) to come out on top.
•••
To help hold you over until the Sweet 16 starts tonight, here are some bracket facts from Bell pertaining to the action so far.
• Favorites are 31-17 against the spread, with March 20’s favorites going 13-2.
• No Sweet 16 team was an underdog in both games last weekend.
• After the weekend action, 16 seeds are now 0-96 in the first round since the tournament expanded, while 15 seeds are 4-92.
• In the second round, 12 seeds are 16-15 thanks to Western Kentucky’s win over 13 seed San Diego. Ten seeds are 18-18 in the second round after Davidson’s run.
• Two lower seeds are favorites in bettors’ eyes this weekend, with No. 7 West Virginia picked over No. 3 Xavier and No. 3 Louisville favored against No. 2 Tennessee.
•••
The Big East and Pac-10 are the conferences with the most representatives (three each) in the Sweet 16. The Big 12 and Big 10 each got two teams in, with the ACC, SEC, Southern, Conference USA, Sun Belt and Atlantic 10 getting one team each in.
Among the six power conferences, the Big 10’s tournament teams have the best winning percentage (.714 for four teams). Following the Big 10 are the Pac-10 (.667 for six teams) and Big East (.667 for eight teams); Big 12 (.636 for six teams), ACC (.571 for four teams) and SEC (.444 for seven teams). The Pac-10 and Big 10 each had half of their teams advance to the Sweet 16.
•••
A recently released study determined that poker is, in fact, a game of skill.
The study, conducted at Case Western Reserve University, saw two groups of poker novices given basic poker rules. They played against poker software, with one group being given advanced poker instruction on hand ranks, how to read players and other skill sets. The other group was left alone, with that group being outperformed by their more-informed peers on two trials totaling nearly 1,000 hands.
“The reason that poker appears to be a game of luck is that the reliability of any short session is low,” the authors wrote in their conclusion, which was reported on pokernews.com. “Luck disguises the fact that poker is a game of skill. However, as these studies show, skill is the determining factor in long-term outcome.”
Contact editor Paul Laneat 693-1000, ext. 116,or lanep@gnnewspaper.com.
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